The Trafalgar Group, which correctly predicted a win for President Trump in 2016 and has predicted another one in 2020, has released its latest presidential poll out of the huge battleground state of Pennsylvania.
For the first time, President Trump has taken a lead there. It’s a sliver of an advantage for Trump and it obviously means the numbers are moving, with some undecided voters breaking for the president.
The poll, showing Trump with a .8% lead over Biden, was taken over the weekend before the anti-police riots started. The difference falls into the margin of error for the poll, which is 2.91%. There were 1079 participants in the poll. Robert Cahaly, the CEO of the polling firm, says he won’t issue a poll with fewer than 1000 people in any state. See my recent story about Cahaly’s methodology and polling philosophy here.